Karl Arnold Belser
23 May 2018

I  have brought up the subject of China's rising power in the world  as a possible threat to the US. See my blog posts Competition Among Nations and  population Control Using Social Credit. Recent discussions of the Thucydides Trap , which simply states that when a new power emerges like that of China the most probable outcome is a war. This is like two bull moose fighting for Dominance. China is this rising power, but I don't think that China is an overwhelming threat. There are two reasons: demographics and the futility of nuclear war. The substitution for a hot war is and economic war, which I think is already underway.

China's Twilight Years in the Atlantic points out that  China's one child policy that ended in 2013 and the empowering of women inthe workplace has  caused a lack of young workers in CHina. The population pyramid from This Is A Pretty Worring Chart For China's Demographic Future shows China will not have enough workers in the future and will have a huge pension and old age health care problem.

                                 China's population pyramid

In fact most developed or developing parts of the world have a shrinking population as I show in my post Population & Economic Growth.  Japan is apparently planning to use AI and robots to aid the aged whereas Russia apparently plans to acquire territory, like Crimea, to augment their populations.  China is probably going to use both, but I don't think that there will be any hot wars.

There is evidence that China wants to control the South and East China Seas because of their military outposts in several islands and along the Indian and African coasts as described in the book Bully of Asia by Steven Mosher. China is currently still growing rapidly and planning to expand its sphere of influence according to its One Belt One Road Initiative.

                      US vs China GDP            One Belt One Road Initiative

It appears to me that China's growth is going to slow and that it will try to equalize relations with he US. I think it does not want a nuclear war, and on the other hand wants to take care of its people like one might expect a good communist state to do. I think that it will put pressure on North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons because  if North Korea doesn't then other countries like Japan and Vietnam might also try to acquire nuclear weapons, which would make China vulnerable.

I see China becoming a cooperative peer to the United States in the near future. In the long run the future depends on how successful China's expansionist tendencies are
Last updated May 23, 2018
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