Karl Arnold Belser
23 January  2017

My suspicion that the United States might revert to nationalism and oppose globalization under president Donald Trump has been confirmed in Trump's short and to-the-point inaugural address. Trump will put America first.

Trump has resolved the globalization Trilemma that I described in my previous post Reverse Globalization. The speech states clearly that the power of the United States will be returned to the American public, for the benefit of the American people. The speech is a "declaration of war" with both political parties and with all other nations in the world. The US can get away with isolating itself because of The World Situation Today.  The United States is essentially a self sufficient island.

Trump's philosophy to a lot of the problems in middle America is apparently to return power to the states and let the states fix whatever is needed instead of some bureaucrat in Washington. I have pointed out in this blog many times that the ills of this nation are due to bad central public policy like Common Core and centralized medical management. What is needed is  unleashing the discovery process to correct the situation by region and state by state. No central planner can possibly know what every city in the country needs.

I heard a recent CNN interview with the House Intelligence committee chairman Devin Nunez in which hes says exactly this - central government power should be reduced and returned to the states and localities.

I personally think that it has been central governmental control that is responsible for the poor public policies of the United States. I have mentioned this many times in my previous posts. The states might be able to break the monopoly power of the 
ABA and the AMA as well as the teacher's unions.

It currently appears that all of my hopes that I gave in my Trump as a Black Swan post might come true. i hope that this conclusion is not just confirmation bias.


As a side bar, what happens if Trump cannot implement his changes?

The congress might not cooperate, or even worse, the economy might fail for most people. That is, half of the working age population might loose jobs to automation, artificial intelligence and robotics.. Then what happens?

Might Trump get so frustrated and the situation so bad that he declares marshal law so that he becomes a de facto dictator?

I read the book 
It Could Happen Here: America on the Brink by Bruce Judson several years ago that discusses the situation in which there is too much wealth inequality. Judson argues based on the past history of the world that too much inequality can result in civil war in which a leader takes over as dictator.

 Walter Lippmann, the famous political journalist, advised that Franklin D. Roosevelt should become dictator during the 1929 depression. The situation was so bad that Lippmann thought that this was the only way out. Luckily Roosevelt  worked through congress to find a democratic solution. The solution was World War II. However, Sinclair Lewis did write a book It Can't Happen Here in 1936, in the middle of the Great Depression, that describes how a dictator might take over.

The collapse of democracy in the United States is a definite tail risk that should be prepared for . See my post Tail Risk.  
Last updated January 24, 2017
HTML 4.01