By Karl Arnold Belser
21 August 2015

The article Immigration - Issue of the Century and the article Population Projections, 2015 - 2100 brought my attention to a mega trend that I have missed. In short, these articles point out that Europe is experiencing uncontrolled immigration from the Middle east and Africa and the the largest portion of the world's population growth is occurring in Africa. This growth will put enormous pressure on Africans to migrate to Europe, to the point that Europe shortly will no longer be populated by Europeans. At some point Europeans may have to take draconian measures to curb and reverse this flow if the total character of Europe is to be maintained.

Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate for president of the US, has made this issue a primary platform point. He basically wants to eliminate the incentives for illegal immigration by not allowing remittances to home countries from the US and by eliminating the Anchor Baby allowance for citizenship. Trumps point is that the government of Mexico has every reason to promote illegal immigration. He states that the US should manipulate Mexico into a cooperative arrangement to control this flow of people. Trump probably will not become president, but the issue needs to be discussed.

Luckily for the US the illegal immigration problem is not too serious because most of the Latino immigrants are Christian and hard working. They, in my opinion, are a great asset that the US needs. They have kept the distribution of people as a function of age flat despite the fact that the white population is not having enough children. However, the flow of new illegals has to be stopped. This flow will slow if Mexico becomes more prosperous. I believe that most illegals would prefer to be in their home country.

 Europe is in an entirely different situation. It lets anyone who enters Europe stay. Today something like 40% of the French population are either sub-Saharan Africans or Islamic refugees from Africa or the Middle East. Europe is in danger of being overwhelmed by Islamic fundamentalism, to the point that all of the accumulated social history of the west that I describe in my post Future Politics could be lost.

I will be watching with great interest to see how Europe handles the flow of illegal immigrants.

                                                     === COMMENTARY ===

Will and Ariel Durant in their book The Lessons of History have an astute observation about biological history. I took the following quote from a Farnam Street Blog article.

She does not care that a high birth rate has usually accompanied a culturally low civilization, and a low birth rate a civilization culturally high; and she (here meaning Nature as the process of birth, variation, competition, selection, and survival) sees to it that a nation with a low birth rate shall be periodically chastened by some more virile and fertile group. … If the human brood is too numerous for the food supply, Nature has three agents for restoring the balance: famine, pestilence, and war.

This quote directly bears on the current world situation, especially in Europe. It also brings into question as to whether the Social Contract between the people and the government can actually be implemented. The social contract requires a "good life" for everyone, whereas one knows that in the end, when resources are scarce, the game will be survival of the fittest.

Here is another quote from Durant:

Nature smiles at the union of freedom and equality in our utopias. For freedom and equality are sworn and everlasting enemies, and when one prevails the other dies. Leave men free, and their natural inequalities will multiply almost geometrically, as in England and America in the nineteenth century under laissez-faire. To check the growth of inequality, liberty must be sacrificed, as in Russia after 1917. Even when repressed, inequality grows; only the man who is below the average in economic ability desires equality; those who are conscious of superior ability desire freedom; and in the end superior ability has its way. Utopias of equality are biologically doomed, and the best that the amiable philosopher can hope for is an approximate equality of legal justice and educational opportunity.

The hand writing is on the wall. There is going to be, at some point, a clash of civilizations. This outcome is inevitable because the earth cannot support its current population, especially since the "incapable population" is experiencing growth that is out of control.
Last updated August 24, 2015
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