By Karl Arnold Belser
23 June 2013

I posted a READING LIST FOR MANAGING AN UNCERTAIN  FUTURE in 2012 as a personal reminder of the books I have read. I wrote a journal entry on megatrends in 2013. This megatrends journal entry essentially summarized what I learned from my reading list after my mind had time to digest the material. As a result I started the UNCERTAIN FUTURE BLOG WITH
MEGATRENDS 2013 as the second entry.

I know, as Yogi Berra said, “It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future".  So why should anyone worry about the future if making predictions is a futile effort? The answer, to my way of thinking, is to make predictions as probabilities that stem from verifiable facts and first principles. After all, science and the scientific method does work, it just doesn’t work well for human beings.

My Achilles Heal is logical fallacy, like the narrative fallacy. Apparently the human mind remembers better if the data is embedded into a story, and the mind makes up stories to help it remember despite the fact that the story may be totally inaccurate. This narrative fallacy is the most deadly because I have a general inclination to believe stories and anecdotal evidence with little or no skepticism. I am trying to train myself to be more skeptical.

On the other hand one of the most effective forms of human communications is story telling. Hence I want to be a good story teller, but I want the stories to communicate some truth.

My intention in this blog is to document the things that I learn that might help me avoid falacies and that might help prepare my mind so that I can become conscious and take advantage of opportunities as they might occur.

Last updated June 23, 2013
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