CONFUSION CONTINUES
By Karl Arnold Belser
24 July 2020

I THINK THEY DO PROTEST TOO MUCH

I am disappointed that the protesters did not take their win and back off when much of th American society was behind the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement.

The protesters created defeat out of victory. They vandalized and threatened to attack the homes of the woman mayors of both Seattle and Oakland.  In response to such attacks President Trump ordered federal marshals to Portland Oregon to protect federal buildings and to Chicago to try to stop a two month long violence spree in the black community. The mayors said that they did not want any help but these mayors held back police from trying to stop the killings and enforce the law.

A recent nationwide poll showed that these continued protests and killings  have cause a majority of the US population to oppose the BLM movement. Further gun and ammunition sales have skyrocketed in many areas of the country. I am personally worried about an escalation of civil unrest.

CORONAVIRUS RISES AGAIN

The early lock downs in California, Arizona, Texas and Florida for several months with low infection rates have backfired.  These states got tired of being locked down for no apparent reason. Many people in these states went back to life as usual and got infected with Coronavirus. Even though the infection rate is high the death rate is low because older people know that they are at risk and are staying sheltered.  President Trump pointed out this week in a press conference that the median age for Coronavirus deaths was 78. The press is continuing to scare everyone such that people don't know what to do. The Real Clear Politics article shows How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns.

I read in the July issue of the Stanford Magazine that Stanford will  have lower class students attend summer and fall quarters and the upper class students winter and spring. The stay at home quarters will be done by remote learning. They will implement social distancing and possibly require masks. Stanford has apparently assessed the Coronavirus risk and IT IS high for the next year. 

DEMOCRACY IN TROUBLE

I think that the US is in a second cold war with China, but I have had trouble articulating how the war is being waged. It is an economic war but China is not wanting to take over territory. So how is that different from just plain competition?

I had an epiphany after reading the book How China Escaped the Poverty Trap by Cornell professor Yuen Yuen Ang. In short China is managed like a large company with one objective - economic growth without other factors like human rights, health,pollution or resource conservation. In 1980 the per capita income was equivalent to the poorest countries in Africa. Today it is comparable to that of the western world in most big cities. This is a 6% compound growth rate. The question is whether this growth rate can continue.

The Achilles Heel of democracy is the tyranny of the majority and the majority is subject to irrational group think. This group think effect is elaborated will in the Atlantic article The Coddling of the American Mind by Luckiianoff and Haidt. The epiphany is that Chinese dictator driven capitalism prevents the tyranny of the majority at the expense of human rights, and the the tyranny of the majority is currently ruining the united States and it is not growing at all economically. In China racial unrest and disease like Coronavirus are handled swiftly such that the nation's economy has not suffered much.

The United States and China are in an economic cold war and China does not have to do anything while the US ruins itself. I suspect that this observation has not gone unnoticed by the US military intelligence. So the current question is "How will the US proceed during the next election." I fear that the US might have to adopt tactics similar to those of China in order to survive. This might be the paradigm shift that appears to be coming.
      
Last updated July 24, 2020
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