SLOW MOVEMENT
By Karl Arnold Belser
10 July 2020

GRASS ROOTS SOCIAL CHANGE

The protest for social justice after the George Floyd murder have motivated many of the people of all races to put black lives matter signs on their lawns and on their windows. This has been a big win for the desire for social justice and will probably motivate nation wide policing reforms.

In dozens of cities across the united states a few people in the black community caused significant property damage and in some cases killed other black people. One might think that this activity would damage the reputation of the black community. However, some black leaders realized that this reputation damage might occur. The women mayors of Seattle, Chicago and Atlanta have spoken out  because black activists have killed several innocent black children.

I consider the grass root complaints of leaders in the black conn unity to be a positive trend. The black conn unities are letting a few criminals destroy the reputation of black people . This behavior can only be stopped by actions from withing the community in my opinion.

I am feeling somewhat optimistic that there will be significant police reform and that the racial disorder in the United States will diminish.

DECLINING COMPETITIVE EDGE

The United States has printed a lot of money to cope with  the current economic situation. This money is not being invested for future gains that will bay off this ddebt.  Rather it is being used for welfare. This wasteful use of money might make competition with China ore difficult.

Further many vibrant cities that have in the past created much of the current wealth that the US enjoys are being undermined. See my comments about de-urbanization in my post POSSIBLE TRENDS.
The BLM movement along with homelessness and sky high rents in big cities indirectly cripples the cities that are an important asset in competition with China.

In the last two weeks Russia has made Putin a dictator by extending his term of office for decades. I note that the competition between world powers is essentially two nations with centrally controlled capitalism pitted against the democratic and disorderly, human rights oriented west. This I believe is the beginning of a second cold war.


THE SECOND COLD WAR

I suspect that it is not common knowledge in the west just how advanced China is economically and technically. So I want to summarize it .

Hong Kong is a financial capital in the Pearl River Delta also known as the Greater Bay Area. This region is the tech capital of China with over 70 million people and with 10% of China's economy. 
Not only can they keep the criminals and nonproductive people out of the cities but they can force the sick to quarantine.. Hence they have managed the Coronavirus epidemic well.

China has taken advantage of the disarray n the west to bring Hong Kong more in line with China's political and economic policies. The west does not like the way that China has treated Hong Kong but given the mess at home they will probably do nothing.

Greater Bay Area

Note that Shenzhen is the silicon valley of China. Hone Kong is the New York. Guangzhou is a major seaport like Los Angeles, Macao is like Disneyland and Los Vegas combined. However, China is not completely independent of the west is semiconductors and finance, but they could become independent. 

Further the Chinese are not wasting their money on social welfare. They are building infrastructure that will allow the debt that  they assume to be repaid in the future.. This fact gives China a competitive advantage over the west. And the isolationist tendencies of the US will force China to be self sustaining and allow China to sell their goods domestically. 
Hence China's Greater Bay Area might become a significant cold war challenge to the west. Recall that the cold war with Russia ended when Russia essentially went bankrupt. It could happen to the US.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

The United States has allowed, by default, the Coronavirus epidemic to run until the country approaches herd immunity.. However, most people that are intelligent have figured out that if one is older (over 50) they had better stay sheltered if they want o live. So most of the infected people are younger and the death rate has plummeted despite the growth of Coronavirus cases.

Coronavirus infection and death rates

This chart is further proof that there was no need to shut the nation down and ruin its economy. Younger people get sick and recover just like for any other disease. Older people may die. So they should stay home. 
      
Last updated July 10, 2020
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