COORONAVIRUS CONSEQUENCES
By Karl Arnold Belser
17 March 2020

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

The World Health Organization (WHO) has stated that if there is no vaccine between 40 and 70 percent of the worlds population will be exposed to the Coronavirus independent of any other measures taken.

It is known that older people and those with health problems will have the highest death rate. The death rate can be lowered if the medical facilities are not overwhelmed.. If these facilities are overwhelmed triage measures will have to be taken, which means that the people most likely to survive will be treated and the others will die.

The United States has chosen to minimize the rate of triage by imposing social distance between people in order to slow the spread of the disease and save as many people as possible.  The following graphs show the difference between having and not having a social distance mandate given that the areas under the two curves (the number of people affected) is the same in both cases. The people above the dotted line will need triage.

Without social distance    With social distance
                                         Without Social Distancing                                          With SOcial Distancing

First order thinking (humanitarian thinking) says that society should save as many people as possible. Hence it  should implement social distance everywhere.


However I think that China is at economic war with the rest of the world as I have stated in my previous posts.

China has too many old and otherwise nonproductive people. These older and nonproductive people are the ones that the corona virus is going to affect the most. Hence China has apparently picked the left most strategy which will weed out the economic garden of workers. The damage economically will be less than  and of shorter duration
, A a lot of nonproductive people (economic dead weight) will be eliminated without genocide.

Second order thinking (triage thinking) says survive economically and win the economic war with the US.

OTHER POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES

The US financial system is not stable at this point. The stock market as of this writing (3/17) is down about  30 percent from its January highs. The Fed has lowered it funds rate to 0% and otherwise flooded the markets with money so that money market funds do not default. The markets have not responded well. The federal reserve appears to be losing control.

In addition the state and federal governments are asking people to shelter in place (not leave home) for at least two weeks. This action means that much of the economy will come to a complete stop. People are going to loose their jobs. Debt may be defaulted upon. Many businesses may go bankrupt.
This is not good news for many people because more than half the US population is living pay check to paycheck.
  

There is a glimmer of possibility that the total world financial system might collapse. In other words a RESET might occur, and the whole world civilization will have to be rethought. At some point the government can't just print money without hyperinflation and economic ruin.

PERSONAL CONSEQUENCES

I am sequestered at home. I have been expecting a financial incident. I have enough cash, a secure home, and supplies to last several weeks. I am 80 so I am very concerned about  dying from the Coronavirus. I will strictly stay at home.

By the way, the Committee to promote Square Dancing and the Rockin' Jokers Square Dance club are closed for the duration. Further Jakie and I have canceled all other social activities. I have lots of books to read.

       
Last updated March 17, 2020
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